Watching helplessly as the movers do their thing. I tried helping, they laughed and told me to sit down.
Earlier this week I had to fax something (aren’t landlords hip?). Downloaded an app, and away I faxed.
The other day I saw some Captain Obvious at, I think Barclays, write something about how phones are replacing cameras (uh, Kodak fell off the planet years ago). So the topic of mobile phones replacing other things has been on my mind.
Here are all the things my phone has replaced (or prevented me from needing):
- home phone
- newspaper
- alarm clock
- wrist watch
- auto GPS
- pay phones
- paper diary
- camera
- many books
- heavy briefcase full of files
- radio/iPod
- video camera
- audio recorder
- fax machine
- scanner
- pocket subway maps, including for places I travel
- bunch of membership cards, like Starbucks, United, and Marriott
Just think. Before smartphones there where whole economies around these things.
Categories: Uncategorized
Dave,
interesting list and I agree with you. The result of that is, if people are wondering where all the middle class jobs have gone or why unemployment/underemployment is so high, doesn’t that sort of answer the question?
I’m thinking low cost phones/tablets/computers have eliminated many more jobs than outsourcing/off-shoring. And you didn’t mention TV’s (I’ve gotten rid of both the TV and cable), stereos, home entertainment centers, walkmans, etc. not to mention all the factories/trucking/shipping/management etc. that goes along with those industries.
Andy Kessler wrote a fun and readable book a couple years ago called “Eat People” (http://amzn.to/14XbZju). His hypothesis was that if you want to make money and change the world, invent things that eliminate jobs.
Apple, Google, MSFT, Amazon, WalMart etc. all have one thing in common, they have eliminated vast swaths of businesses and jobs. How expensive is it to short Best Buy?
BTW, I’ve started taking some Cousera courses (https://www.coursera.org/). Absolutely fantastic. If you work at a university right now, you’ve got to be pretty terrified. Somewhere I was reading about Clayton Christensen saying that Harvard no longer teaches accounting. There’s nothing that differentiates a Harvard accountant. (snide Wall St comments aside…). Universities, as we knew them, become vastly different in the next 5 years.
My point is, I think you’re absolutely right and the changes aren’t ending any time soon. End user technology, like your phone, business applications and infrastructures and the improved management techniques made possible by them, coupled with outsourcing/off-shoring have eliminated whole classes of jobs.
The question is, what will remain?
Direct service jobs (plumbers, builders, etc.), sales, high skilled design, accounting (with far fewer people), senior level operations managers/experts and sophisticated IT, though far fewer of them than we have now.
And then you look at Heinz being purchased by Buffett/G3, I’ll bet you 1/3 of their staff will be laid off in the next two years. I use Budweiser as my example. That’s pretty much what G3 did after they purchased them. Great business if you have capital and a willingness to cut jobs.
It’s a brave new world.
Take care and hopefully we’ll get a chance to chat soon.
Exactly Andy, and you don’t even mention the challenge with finding new doctors.
People are on their own more than ever, and those that think they can follow a traditional career path are not thinking it through.
Andy — I’ve only scanned this article, but I think it’s along the lines of what you believe:
http://techcrunch.com/2013/02/16/this-time-is-different/
Oh, for a couple pints of beer and a few hours, what an interesting discussion.
Hopefully the move is going well and the family is happy in the new surroundings.
Missing you,
Andy